Is there a chance the sports bettor can gain a huge advantage? This is, in fact, possible. This is a term assinged by online casinos to players whenever the bets are in their favor. On average, the bookmakers have an advantage for straight bets at around 4. Whether you want to just earn a bit of money or you want to be a pro, the first step is to understand expected value. Expected Value or EV is a term which professional gamblers utilize on a daily basis at new betting sites.
We can flip the coin for hours and neither each of us will have an advantage. This bet has an expected value that is neutral. You offer me a deal so I will stay in the game. Now the expected value of the bet is positive. Each wager in sports betting has either a negative or positive expected value.
So what is expected value in sports betting? It is the measure of what a bettor can expect to win or lose on each bet placed on the same odds time and time again. Obviously, the higher the EV goes, the better value the bet. The most basic example of expected value is the good old coin flip. For each bet, the EV would be. When done enough to remove luck from the equation, the bettor should profit.
These amateur sports bettors become completely taken aback when told this is not the way to profitably bet. Why is this the case? Put it this way. The argument can be made that someone who understands and can use EV, but has very little sports knowledge, will profit more betting on sports than someone who has a plethora of sports knowledge but does not understand EV. Again, this is true because expected value does not take anything into account besides the numbers.
It tells a bettor the value of a potential wager, plain and simple. If a bet has a -EV, it could be a poor value. Furthermore, expected value can help new bettors sift through things they already know. EV matters, and new bettors who use it and pay attention to it give themselves a much higher chance to succeed.
Wow… how disappointing. Multiply the probability of winning with the amount that could be won per bet, and subtract the probability of losing with the amount that could be lost per bet. The formula looks like this:. The best part about this simple formula is that nowadays, the internet will do some of the work.
Head to an online sportsbook and find the decimal numbers for the amount won per bet.
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To start, the bettor must multiply the probability of winning with the amount he or she could win per bet and then subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet. Now that we've gotten the math talk out of the way, the formula would look something like this Calculate the potential winnings for each outcome by multiplying your stake by the decimal and then subtract the stake.
For example, let's say we are going to bet a soccer game between Chelsea 1. With these odds, the draw would come in at odds of 6. The probability of Stoke City not winning is the sum of Chelsea and a draw or 0. Absolutely not. Conversely, a -EV scenario isn't going to be a loss every time. We already know that sports betting is essentially a guessing game, and even though a wager might not be expected to net a profit more times than not, it's far from guaranteed that it's going to win or lose.
One way to look at is like this; a wager on a heavy favorite will turn out to be a -EV bet. The -EV means the bet is a bad value, not that the heavy favorite will necessarily lose. All it means is that a bettor isn't going to get rich off of the bet.
Alex Denholm February 23, Share on facebook. Share on whatsapp. Share on twitter. Share on linkedin. Read on to learn more about EV, how to calculate Expected Value and why it helps. What Is EV? Why Expected Value Is Important Beginners to sports betting often think they should only bet on winners.
This is not a profitable way to bet. Not many people can actually predict the winners accurately enough that it becomes profitable. This is how sportsbooks make most of their money. If this was the case, anyone that watched enough sports could easily make a fortune. Sports are unpredictable… …but Expected Value is not. EV is purely based on numbers. It shows how much value is in the bet. Further, EV helps to sift through things you already know. Then, subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount you would lose.
Follow these steps to fill in the above formula to calculate the EV for your bets: Translate the odds into Decimal Odds using our Odds Converter. Calculate the Amount to Win from a winning bet and its Probability of Winning.
Calculate the Amount to Lose from a losing bet and its Probability of Losing. Enter this into the formula. Likewise, the American Odds for the Golden Knights to win can be translated to:. This is simply your stake. Finding Value Bets. Note that there are a few things to keep in mind when searching for value bets. EV only illustrates if there is good value in the bet. In fact, some wagers on heavy favorites can be -EV.
The -EV simply means that there is bad value, not that the heavy favorite will lose.