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Better than even in betting trends

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However, trends are often overvalued and over-relied upon, giving bettors a false sense of where the value truly lies. Inexperienced bettors fall in love with trends and become victims of recency bias. Think of recency bias as "what have you done for me lately. Similarly, if a team has won five games in a row and is riding an impressive winning streak, a naive bettor will automatically assume the hot streak continues and blindly continue to back them.

This would be considered an "auto-bet" in gambling circles. On the flip side, if a team just suffered a humiliating point loss or is riding a five-game losing skid, the natural instinct is to bet against them. After all, only bad teams lose five games in a row or get blown out, right? Bettors should reject this oversimplified line of thinking.

Despite how a team looks recently, good or bad, it might be completely out of the historical norm. Instead, bettors should focus on sample sizes larger than a handful of games because they more accurately represent a team's overall strength and performance. Long-term history is a much better indicator of success than short-term runs. Over the course of a long season, teams experience ups and downs.

A great team can hit a rough patch and lose three or four games in a row. A bad team can get hot and enjoy a three- or four-game win streak. However, the law of averages always wins out in the end. This would be considered "regression. As a result, bettors should judge teams based on their overall body of work.

This means studying a larger sample size of games that take into account the entire season thus far, not just a handful of the most recent games. The first thing a new or casual bettor would look at if they wanted to bet the game was scour the trends for both teams. Maybe the trends say that Royals are in their last five games, in their last eight road games and in their last 12 games against the Blue Jays. Meanwhile, the Jays are in their last nine games and won six in a row at home.

Maybe the trends also state that the under has in seven of their last nine Royals games and eight of the last 10 Jays games. An inexperienced bettor would look at those head-to-head trends and that's all they need to know. Take the Jays and the under. Case closed. The problem with relying exclusively on trends and breaking down games this way is that all of these trends, along with hundreds of others you may not even know about, are already baked into the cake.

The oddsmakers set the line with all of this in mind. Don't think you've discovered a Holy Grail trend that the oddsmakers overlooked. The sportsbooks know these types of trends are easily available and many ill-informed bettors will pick games solely based on them. As a result, they will shade numbers toward the trended side—in this case shading the line further toward the popular pick of Jays and under.

This forces trend based bettors to bet overpriced numbers that have lost value. It's also important to consider how the line moves in comparison to the trends. For example, maybe professional bettors have identified an edge on the Royals or the over.

Just like the oddsmakers, the true pros know every trend known to man and hundreds more. That applies here, and with both teams rested and neither playing on Saturday we should expect a huge effort from the hosts who have decisive edges in most areas. Charlotte at San Antonio Sat. Charlotte has played well thus far and although they started at just , that record is good enough to lead the weak Southeast Division.

The Hornets ended winning 5 of 7 and they are seeking to avenge an earlier competitive home loss to the Spurs, having fallen as 5. Houston at Toronto Sun. It is also a revenge game for Houston, which lost at home to the Raptor,s , just before Thanksgiving. At Houston is third best in the West with perhaps the leading candidate for MVP, James Harden, providing on court leadership in addition to his exploits. The Rockets entered having won four straight and 15 of 17 dating back to the start of December.

Toronto has been almost as hot, winning 15 of 19 since just before Thanksgiving. In what should be an uptempo game that is very competitively priced, the preference is for the tougher tested Rockets to gain that revenge. Gaming Today. Written By: Andy Iskoe. Get connected with us on Social Media.

ATS "against the [point] spread" : If a team is ATS, it means it has a record against the point spread, or more commonly referred to simply as the "spread.

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Better than even in betting trends Buying points: Some bookies or sportsbooks will allow customers to alter the set line and then adjust odds. By betting on the underdog, the team does not have to win the game for you to win your bet. Book: Short for sportsbook or bookmaker; person or establishment that takes bets from customers. Thus, flipping a coin you are equally likely to have heads come up times in a row as you are to0 have heads and tails alternate perfectly for the entire flips, or to get any other predicted combination of heads and tails. Cover: The betting result on a point-spread wager. That increases to 65 percent in both the divisional and championship rounds.
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Maybe the trends say that Royals are in their last five games, in their last eight road games and in their last 12 games against the Blue Jays. Meanwhile, the Jays are in their last nine games and won six in a row at home.

Maybe the trends also state that the under has in seven of their last nine Royals games and eight of the last 10 Jays games. An inexperienced bettor would look at those head-to-head trends and that's all they need to know. Take the Jays and the under. Case closed. The problem with relying exclusively on trends and breaking down games this way is that all of these trends, along with hundreds of others you may not even know about, are already baked into the cake.

The oddsmakers set the line with all of this in mind. Don't think you've discovered a Holy Grail trend that the oddsmakers overlooked. The sportsbooks know these types of trends are easily available and many ill-informed bettors will pick games solely based on them. As a result, they will shade numbers toward the trended side—in this case shading the line further toward the popular pick of Jays and under.

This forces trend based bettors to bet overpriced numbers that have lost value. It's also important to consider how the line moves in comparison to the trends. For example, maybe professional bettors have identified an edge on the Royals or the over. Just like the oddsmakers, the true pros know every trend known to man and hundreds more.

So if they are going against these trends and causing the line to move toward the Royals or the over, this would mean trend-based bettors are going directly against sharp money—something you never want to do. Another key reason to avoid trend-based betting is that trends could be completely irrelevant and not predictive of an outcome. Maybe you see a trend that states the Miami Heat are on Wednesdays this season. So that means you should blindly bet Miami every Wednesday moving forward, right?

Not exactly. This could be a complete coincidence and fluke. However, this trend is largely meaningless because it has no bearing on the current 49ers team and the specific matchup with their opponent. Those 49ers teams that went on MNF had different players, different coaches and different opponents. It has nothing to do with this week's MNF showdown against the Cardinals. Instead of overreacting to trends, bettors looking to get an edge from historical data should instead focus on betting systems.

A betting system is a model that hones in on a profitable situation in the past and then looks for present-day games that fit the same criteria. Instead of focusing exclusively on the present day matchup and dissecting two teams facing off, you are instead betting on situations or "spots," not specific teams. Divisional opponents play each other twice per year, every year, which levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points.

Road teams are also undervalued because the betting public places too much emphasis on home-field advantage. This may not seem that impressive, but remember the magic number to break even and turn a profit is There are hundreds if not thousands of betting systems like this. The beauty of a betting system is that is has a sound theory behind it and no matter which teams are playing, it remains profitable.

In other words, you could plug in any two random teams and the situation would still provide an edge as long as they fit the criteria. More Sports Betting Basics here. The Bulls were fourth in the Central Division as dawned with a record. Off-season acquisition Rajon Rondo has not fit in well and is reportedly causing some internal friction. Once you get beyond Cleveland, Toronto and Boston the East is wide open for the remaining Playoff spots.

In Jimmy Butler the Bulls have an elite player capable of carrying a team for stretches, but if there is little to no team chemistry, talent alone cannot get things done. As the midpoint of the season approaches the rigor of the tough travel regimen becomes even more of a factor in handicapping. In recent seasons more and more coaches have rested players on the first, or second, game in back-to-back night scenarios. Pay attention to streaks and look for teams in good current form facing teams in poor current form.

Memphis at Golden State Fri. Although the Grizzlies have cooled since a run from mid-November through mid-December, the defensively stout team finds itself right in the thick of the Playoff mix in the very tough Western Conference. In their lone prior meeting this season Memphis blew out the Warriors, , easily winning and covering as point home underdogs.

Revenge is often overrated in professional sports but there are time when teams will use prior losses as motivation when it involves elite teams accustomed to winning easily. That applies here, and with both teams rested and neither playing on Saturday we should expect a huge effort from the hosts who have decisive edges in most areas.

Charlotte at San Antonio Sat.

DIVIDING LINE SPORTS BETTING

With so many games played every single day 2, regular season games total in a normal season , wiseguys are provided seemingly endless opportunities to maximize their edge. As for how you can maximize yours, here are 10 easy tips to help you turn a profit this MLB season. Oddsmakers know that recreational bettors love betting favorites. Using our Bet Labs software , we found that regular season favorites at or higher have gone On the surface that record seems impressive.

When a favorite wins, your payout is small. But when they lose, you get crushed. In order to make money betting football and basketball, bettors must win When dogs lose, you only lose what you risked. But when they win, you enjoy valuable plus-money payouts. We like to go contrarian because, more often than not, the public loses. The Average Joe bets based on his gut instinct. He always wants to bet favorites, home teams, popular franchises and teams with star players. By going contrarian, we are able to capitalize on public bias and take advantage of artificially inflated numbers.

As an added bonus, we also place ourselves on the side of the books. We all know the house always wins. You also want to be on the sharp side of every game with the professional bettors who have a long track record of success.

One of the best ways to locate sharp action is to follow Reverse Line Movement RLM : when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. Why would the books drop the line to give public Cubs bettors a better number? Because sharp action came in on the Brewers. If you raise the RLM to 10 cents or more, it gets even better. Because teams within the division play each other much more frequently, it breeds familiarity and levels the playing field, which inevitably benefits the dog.

Since , all underdogs in divisional games think Red Sox vs. Yankees have lost just Divisional dogs perform even better if we layer in two more filters: First, road teams the public overvalues home-field advantage, creating inflated value on visitors , and second, a high total 8. With more runs expected to be scored, it leads to more variance, aiding the underdog. While the majority of bets are placed on the moneyline, bettors can still find value betting on totals. One big factor to consider before placing a total wager: the weather, specifically wind.

When the wind blows in, it can turn home runs into warning-track outs, benefiting unders. Conversely, when it blows out, it can turn fly balls into homers and benefit overs. Since , when the wind is blowing out at 8 mph or more the over has gone In the end, umpires are human. Some cave under pressure and are influenced by the crowd, which benefits home teams.

Some thrive off the hate of the crowd, benefiting road teams. Some have a tight strike zone, which leads to more walks, runs scored and benefits overs. Some have big strike zones, leading to more strikeouts and batted balls in play, which benefits unders.

For example, home teams have gone When Ron Kulpa is the home plate ump, unders have gone One of the biggest mistakes new bettors make is betting through only one sportsbook. This is a bad idea because it forces bettors to play whatever number their book is offering. Instead, we suggest opening multiple accounts at several different sportsbooks so you can shop for the best line. For example, say you want to bet the Kansas City Royals. The over is always more fun to bet, because cheering for points is more enjoyable.

But to successfully play totals, you have to be willing to play the under once in a while. The first half will have both a spread and total and the second half line will usually be made available during the game. The same goes for individual quarters, which will often see higher totals for the second and fourth quarter, due to the high number of timeouts during those frames.

With more individual statistics available than any other sport, NFL games have the richest tapestry of props available. A primetime game could have close to props associated with it. Primetime games are the only event in a specific window, like Monday nights, so bookmakers often give bettors more opportunities to play props then they would on busy Sunday afternoon window.

Props offer a chance to wager on the game without betting on the final score, but they have some downsides, like carrying a lower maximum bet compared to the spread and moneyline. You may also notice less favorable odds than you get on moneyline or spread bets: bookmakers tend to over-round the implied probability more on props, because less money is coming in on them. The NFL has three betting markets for those bet types: parlays, teasers, and futures. During matches you can bet on live betting markets.

All of these can provide value for bettors, as long as they understand how each works. Combining two short moneyline favorites can result in odds much closer to even money. Just remember all events on a parlay must win for the bet to be successful. If you want to know strictly about Parlays and Teasers we have that covered too. In a teaser, the better gets to adjust the point spread of at least two games by 6 to 10 points. The standard NFL teaser is six points, so the bettor gets to either add six points to an underdog or subtract six points from a favorite.

By teasing the spread, the Bills can now lose by as many as 12 points to generate a win for bettors, while the Steelers only need to win by two for a win! But remember, all teasers must include at least two games. Like parlays, all legs of a teaser must win in order for the wager, as a whole, to be a winner.

A common NFL teaser is to find multiple favorites laying between 4. Another common teaser is to find tease multiple underdogs over seven points. Pick your favorite team and put some money on them and make it the most memorable season ever when they make it to the big game in February. Given the number of stoppages of play in the NFL, some books will give you the chance to wager on the outcome of every play in a game.

You can bet on whether the next pass completion; whether the next drive will end in a field goal, touchdown, turnover or punt; even bet on what type of play the offense will call next: run or pass. Halftime Live betting is something that most sportsbooks offer. At halftime, the sportsbook will post moneyline odds for the remainder of the game. For a close game, betting the underdog is another opportunity to grab value.

Additionally, halftime only last 15 minutes so value can be found since the sportsbooks are making rush decisions that cater towards the public money favorites. Public Money As with most sports, bettors generally back the favorites in pro football. NFL lines will be posted on Tuesdays. As you get closer to Sundays, the favorites tend to become bigger favorites and the underdogs are bigger underdogs.

When analyzing the matchup on Tuesday, it could be best to act immediately if you like the favorite or wait until closer to kickoff if you like the underdog. Handicapping Regular Season vs Playoffs We already know that home teams win more often in the regular season, but what about in the playoffs?

What about each round of the playoffs? Unsurprisingly, according to Pro Football Reference, the home team is even more likely to win in the playoffs. From to , the home team won Come playoff time, that number jumped to In the Wild Card round, home teams won That increases to 65 percent in both the divisional and championship rounds.

If you consider home-field an advantage in the regular season, come playoffs it is more significant and should be bet accordingly. Knowing where public money is going can help you in the long term. If you feel strongly that a home favorite will win when the lines first come out, it is best to bet it early before public money drives up the odds. A moneyline on Tuesday can become by Saturday.

By placing the same bet earlier at a lower cost you have saved money and reduced the juice read our guide on that. With an underdog, the odds tend to improve. By knowing these trends, your gains are greater and losses are cheaper. When inclement weather is in the forecast, game totals tend to go down over the course of the week. By the time the weekend comes and most bettors place their wagers, Team Analysis Several team-related factors should be considered when deciding how to bet.

Some of the most common ones are: Team records on extra rest or short rest. Teams playing on Thursdays and Mondays will have extra or short rest as compared to their opponents 1. Team injuries 2. As teams release injury reports, point spreads will move accordingly.

The sooner you act, the better chance you can take advantage of a line before it moves. Being proactive and monitoring the weather can be a great asset to you. In order to be successful, your strategy should combine several different factors. The more factors that contribute to the foundation of your strategy, the great chance of winning in the long run, as long as the factors are sound, that is.

Over a large sample size, home NFL teams are winning 55 to 60 percent of the time. The average winning margin is by less than three points. So generally speaking a moneyline bet on the home team should yield winners over a long period of time.

What are some of the advantages and disadvantages for both the home and away teams? As previously stated, NFL games are usually decided by three points or fewer. Since the betting market generally sides with the favorite, the sportsbooks will set better value on the underdog. That is great value for a game predicted to be decided by one score. Anything can happen in one-score games. Find answers to common questions bettors like you have when researching which sportsbook to join.

Bovada and BetOnline are two great options for user interface and bonuses respectively. You can find legal NFL betting in all 50 states.

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How to win bet everyday - Betting Strategy 001 (2020)

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Sports Betting Betting systems better than trends to avoid these trends, along with hundreds of others you may not even know about, are. They're more useful than you might initially think. Even though they don't directly tell us anything about what's likely to happen on the field of play, they still. Even the sharpest betting trends can't make up for irresponsible behavior. Discussion. Let's have fun and keep it civil.